The Senate will be holding a crucial procedural vote on the DREAM Act tomorrow (Saturday) morning. Most observers expect it to fail, but the list of who stands where is still pretty murky.
Two Senators — Kay Bailey Hutchison and John McCain — have come out against it in the last couple of weeks, while one supporter — Dick Lugar — wavered briefly before re-affirming his vote. But none of these announcements were at all surprising, and none changed the underlying dynamics of the vote.
I’m not going to try to do a full count just yet, because too much is still in play, but I will use this post to pass along what I know and what I learn over the course of today. Check back in for updates.
- DreamActivist released a new target list this morning, with just eight Senators on it — Democrats Kent Conrad, Mark Pryor, Joe Manchin, and Kay Hagan, and Republicans Sam Brownback George Voinovich, Olympia Snowe, and Susan Collins.
- And speaking of Kent Conrad, he’s a past opponent of the bill, but he gave a surprisingly positive response when asked about it late last week.
- As I noted last night, Democrat Ron Wyden — a solid DREAM Act supporter — was briefly considered a question mark for Saturday’s vote, due to upcoming prostate cancer surgery. But a spokesman has confirmed that though he’ll be away from the Senate for tests today, he will be back and voting tomorrow.
- I noted earlier this month that the White House had said that they expected to need seven Republican votes to pass the bill. No idea what that was based on, or if it’s still operative, but you can see my speculation here.
12:30 pm
- The Daily Kos has a DREAM Act “whip count” post up, but it’s pretty much worthless. It lists nine Republicans who are on record against the bill — LeMieux, Hutchison, Ensign, Kirk, McCain, Kyl, Cornyn, Graham, Gregg — as possible gets, while it portrays Dick Lugar and Bob Bennett, who are on the record as solid supporters of the bill, as question marks. It’s just not based in anything, as far as I can tell.
1:30 pm
- Just got off the phone with a staffer for Senator Snowe, who confirmed that “she’s planning on voting no.” Senator Collins’ staff said she’s still unannounced, and Landrieu’s staff promised to email me with a statement.
1:40 pm
- A staffer for Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) just confirmed for me that she’ll be voting no on the DREAM Act tomorrow.
- A new post up at the National Review’s “The Corner” blog says that anti-DREAM Act group Numbers USA believes they have 42 votes in opposition to the bill. They claim four Democrats — Mark Pryor, Ben Nelson, Jon Tester, and Hagan — as opposed.
3:00 pm
- I now count
3938 announced votes against the DREAM Act, and 50 solid votes in favor. With 60 votes needed for passage, that means supporters need to win ten out of the remainingeleventwelve, or flip someone who has already declared against.
- Here are the
eleventwelve I see as up in the air: Democrats Kent Conrad, Byron Dorgan, Jon Tester, Max Baucus, Joe Manchin, Claire McCaskill, Mary Landrieu, and Jim Webb, and Republicans Sam Brownback, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski. Edit: George Voinovich should be on this list. Sorry.
- At least two of the Senators on the above list, it should be noted — Jon Tester and Max Baucus — are widely seen as near-certain no votes, though they haven’t announced their plans yet.
studentactivism.net 
11 comments
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December 17, 2010 at 12:17 pm
Leroy Jackson
I hope the DREAM act fails. Unemployment is too high right now. These students need to go back to their country of citizenship along with their parents and free up some jobs.
December 17, 2010 at 3:44 pm
smoon
Leroy, many of these students have known no other country but the US, coming here at a young age, and may know only English. They are already unable to contribute to their county, the United States, although they are capable, and they are not the reason for unemployment. Have some compassion.
December 17, 2010 at 10:03 pm
extragarlic
I support the Dream Act – but not until next year.
We need better enforcement measures, which Obama will not support unless it is linked together with the Dream Act.
December 17, 2010 at 10:36 pm
el nopal en la frente
we dont want to punish the children but we sure dont want to reward the parents for coming into this country illegaly and using a fraudulant social security, bringing all their 8 kids for us to educate, feed at school, free healhtcare medicaid, food stamps, free or subsidized childcare, and housing. the government is ridiculous giving them preference above americans. what they really need to do is end automatic citizenship! right now there is an influx of illegals to take advantage of the dream act. call ice and see if they dont tell you that since the dream act passed how many have tried crossing. we dont need to legalize we need jobs for americans.
December 17, 2010 at 11:36 pm
Craig Berger
Agree with smoon! Put yourself in their shoes, Leroy.
December 18, 2010 at 4:12 am
k1mo
@leroy jackson, hey there still hiring dishwashers and preps at restaurants, tomato fields, cleaning 20 rooms a day in 8 hrs, digging trenches, cutting lawns, roofing, and many other unpleasant jobs!!!
@ELNOPALENLAFrente free medicaid? food stamps? free childcare? and free housing? you listen way to much AM radio!!! and how exactly is the government giving preference above Americans? oh wait, you mean, lazy Americans are afraid that all this kids will get an education and run the show? oh and the requirement for dream act is to be here since 14 and have a high school diploma that’s at least a 4 years frame, also the illegal crossing has drop 30% just this last quarter alone.
December 18, 2010 at 5:13 am
Shawn
Those against dream act forgotten they also immigrants. We need fresh blood these innocent kids brought to US by there parents. Some of them in this country since 30 years. Lot of money has been invested by local schools for graduations. We need shine youth. I urge all Senators to vote Yes. We will have many hundred thousands youth immediately available
December 18, 2010 at 8:34 am
kevin
I am a born American citizen and I can honestly admit that these innocent kids need a chance. We all have one life to live, on one earth to live on and it surprises me how heartless one can be to his/her own mankind. We are all equal; whites, Hispanics, Blacks, West Indian, Asians and everyone else out there that I have not mentioned. I support what’s right and giving others a chance is the right thing to do. Its almost as similar to a man being convicted for the death penalty for a crime he hasn’t committed. They’re just kids and had no intension’s of breaking the law why is it so hard to forgive them for something they did not do? If the dream act does not pass I will be ashamed to call myself an American because when we look back on the history of America we are all immigrants who were given a chance. Why not return the favor. It wouldn’t kill, but help others.
December 18, 2010 at 10:02 am
areukidding
I don’t feel that anyone should benefit from breaking the law. We need blame their parents not the US for their situation. This will create more incentive for them to come and bring their children which we can’t afford. And for anyone who says that illegals do not get free child care its a lie I worked for a child care agency and they can and do get free child care.
December 20, 2010 at 1:36 pm
jobbafett
FOR TEN YEARS the American public has said NO, NO, NO to the DREAM Act. When will these anarchists listen? We don’t want to give amnesty to adult illegal aliens up to age 30, as this Act would have done. Previous versions (since 2001) were written for illegals up to age 35 — some had NO age limit! It’s time to enforce the laws Americans have already put on the books. Deport, deport, deport.
December 20, 2010 at 6:04 pm
kevin
To Jobbafett dont disagree on anything unless you’ve walked in their shoe….you dont know what its like for them nor will you ever…..do not speak unless you fully understand their situations; therefore, you should try and stay out of their business and go look for a job and if you already have one pay attention to it before you loose it for being so smart!!!